NNJ FallBall 2025 Week 6 Predictions

Prediction Record Tracker: 24-16

The last games were 3 weeks ago but I haven’t forgotten that I went 7-1 last time out. The offenses have been pretty plain so this week will focus on what the defenses will look to do.

Bethlehem vs Nazareth

The gameplan for Bethlehem should focus on Luis. Bethlehem doesn’t have a perfect matchup on paper to guard Luis’ post scoring and 3pt shooting. Omar Qasem has been great but will have a size disadvantage. If they decide to play zone, they need to key in on Yamin and Sameh from 3. Man seems to be the better option, with the perimeter advantage in favor of Nader and Jay.

The signature win this season for Nazareth involved a great team effort to stop Akrum. However, Bethlehem is a different threat with so many options. The priority has to be getting bodies back and stopping the ball in transition against a team that will try and run away with it early. They’ll need a complementary game and using Luis more on the perimeter offensively can boost the defense in transition.

The type of team defense Nazareth will need to neutralize the talent of Bethlehem’s offense is something rarely seen in this league. However, it’d still be very promising to see them execute in transition and do their job in making it difficult.

Bethlehem by 10

Tulkarem vs Gaza

As usual, Tulkarem will try to match the size and speed of Ian Felix on the perimeter and have Mana helping in the paint. However, they switch a lot of picks which can lead to mismatches. The weak point will be in the midrange between the perimeter breakdown and Mana down low. If Ian can score early in this area, Splash and Hamza can take advantage of too much defensive rotation.

While they won’t shy away from physicality, Gaza tends to chase blocks and steals on defense leading to lots of fouls. That won’t cut it against players like Mana and Elias, who can put defenders in a blender. Gaza can always just try to pack the paint and force Tulkarem to score from three. Muhanad Deeb’s ability to match Mana’s energy in the paint will shine if Gaza can pull off the win.

Going up against Mana requires strong early positioning and the patience to live with certain plays that he’ll make. Based on early showings, I don’t see Gaza having the mentality to win this type of game.

Tulkarem by 8

Areeha vs Jerusalem

The first question Areeha needs to answer is how they plan to guard Mike. Andrew torched them earlier in the season and Mike will similarly look to push the pace. They need someone in his face at all times with help behind. He can give Areeha issues by taking more jumpshots, as Mahrooz will be more comfortable defending the drive. Elsewhere, there’s no perfect matchup for Nick but he also hasn’t consistently converted from the field. His performance could dictate how the game goes.

Defense has been an issue all season and Jerusalem often opts for a zone. However, Areeha can move the ball well and has shown they’ll hit 3s when left open. If Jerusalem wants to be in more control defensively, they can choose to live with lesser evils, such as allowing Singer better looks but challenging him to be efficient with high volume instead of losing at the hands of others. It’s not the soundest plan but it gives the offense a window to win the game.

Areeha has definitely had the stronger season thus far and is a deeper, more balanced team. However, in their one loss, they let Tiberias take the shots they are best at. With some luck and a strong game from Nick, I think Mike can similarly give them enough trouble for an upset.

Jerusalem by 1

Safad vs Rafah

So far, Safad’s defense has been strong against both 3pt heavy and paint heavy teams. Surprisingly, Rafah is amongst the league’s lowest in 3s despite having Anas Zubi and Joey. Safad will lean on Brandon, who anchors down low while also giving Aadil the freedom to wreak havoc. On the perimeter, the Abbassis have the versatility to mix the matchups against Anas x2 and Joey in different ways.

This could be the same game on both sides of the floor, as Rafah will also be going up against a Safad offense that is even lower in 3PM. Zain will protect the rim while Nabil hunts down the ball. Someone will have to keep up with Omar’s movement on the perimeter and Joey should be up to the task. On paper, the matchups should be pretty straightforward for Rafah’s defense.

The signs are pointing towards this matchup being a slugfest. Safad’s advantage would likely come from scoring off turnovers. Rafah’s advantage would likely come from a higher shot making floor over the course of the game. It’s a coinflip but I think Rafah’s is more likely.

Rafah by 3

Jenin vs Tiberias

Hopefully the time off will help Jenin put out a full roster for the first time since Week 1. Akrum will likely take on the matchup with Andrew but the next best defenders for Jenin are bigger so it will be interesting to see how they choose to deal with Ali Hassan and Sal. If the guards can force everything to the middle towards Wajdi, he can hang around the rim while guarding Yazan, Ghazi or Sej.

Interestingly, Tiberias has a collection of guards and bigs but no clear wing option to match up with Akrum. They can opt for Andrew who will give up strength or Sej who will give up speed. More likely, many teams have opted to zone Jenin and Tiberias is comfortable playing it. Jenin will look to exploit the rebounding weakness of playing zone with Wajdi, Raied and the league’s leading rebounder Tamer.

Jenin has had too many defensive issues all year, giving up easy dribble penetration and being slow to recover in transition. That’s not a good sign against Tiberias’ guards who will attack in the halfcourt and look to run and get early looks from three.

Tiberias by 6

Yaffa vs Al-Bireh

This is a difficult matchup for Yaffa to win through just individual matchups. The best option might be to stick Jojo on Adeeb and have everyone else prioritize defending the paint and daring Al-Bireh to win from three. They’ll have to be committed to going under screens and guarding 1v1 with a bit of extra cushion. Al-Bireh should look to exploit Khalid’s mismatch vs Yaffa’s less mobile bigs.

With the schedule they’ve played, this will be an easier matchup for Al-Bireh. They cannot let their guard down but they should be comfortable manning up and taking care of their own matchups. Offensively, Yaffa clearly cannot win solely on individual heroics and it would be cool to see if they can attempt to coordinate an offense that confuses defenses with more passing and movement.

It’s unlikely Yaffa will put out some new offensive system so it’ll likely come down to individual talent across each roster, which favors Al-Bireh.

Al-Bireh by 10

Haifa vs Baysan

This week’s matchup will be different for Haifa, playing a Baysan team that doesn’t lean on 1 or 2 players to create like most of the league does. They should still be up to the challenge, though, as long as they emphasize defending the 3pt line. They’ll need to focus on going over screens and closing out more aggressively. Shahzaib could take on the Glendi matchup, one of Baysan’s primary ball handlers.

If they don’t control the pace of the game, it could get ugly quickly for Baysan. They haven’t done the best job so far of containing players off the dribble, which is dangerous against Shahzaib and Amir. Once they’ve broken through, their ball movement rips teams apart. Baysan could try to aggressively deny them the ball and force cuts towards John in the middle, challenging Deep to become a scorer.

Baysan is unlikely to be the team that figured out how to slow down Haifa and at the same time, Haifa has proven to be a better defensive team than expected.

Haifa by 10

Al-Khalil vs Yazur

Fortunately for Al-Khalil, they go up against a Yazur team that has struggled from 3 which should make helping in the paint against drives easier. The primary focus should be neutralizing the size down low, especially Marawan, and limiting easy opportunities like putbacks and deep post ups. The pressure of Heemy and Baraa could wreak havoc and lead to easy opportunities on the other end.

No matter the matchup, Yazur seems committed to playing zone for a good portion of their games so this week is unlikely to be any different. For the stretches they do play man, they’ll have their hands full trying to guard Mahdy. Regardless of man or zone, they have to stop him from getting downhill off the rebound and sacrifice some offensive rebounding to track him on outlet passes in transition.

One of the top 2 defenses in the league against a team that struggles to score is a recipe for disaster. Yazur manages to stay competitive so it could be close but they likely won’t have the firepower to outlast Al-Khalil.

Al-Khalil by 8